The UK may experience additional heatwaves before August ends, according to the latest forecasts from the Met Office. Weather models are indicating a shift towards more settled and warmer conditions as the month progresses. The potential for further heatwaves, especially towards the latter part of August, has been highlighted.
Temperature anomaly maps, which compare predicted temperatures to long-term averages, support the Met Office’s outlook. The GFS weather model shows areas of dark red over much of England on August 4, suggesting temperatures could exceed the long-term average by more than five degrees Celsius. However, projections for the middle and end of August are not available at this time.
Although the possibility of heatwaves exists, the Met Office emphasizes that it is challenging to pinpoint the exact locations, intensity, and duration of such conditions. The longer-term outlook indicates above-average temperatures overall, with a risk of hot weather and heatwaves later in August.
Various factors, such as the positioning and strength of high pressure systems, airflow sources over the UK, and potential interruptions from Atlantic or thundery weather, play a role in the development of heatwaves. For now, conditions at the end of July and the beginning of August are expected to be changeable, with a mix of sunny spells and rain across many areas.
Northwestern regions are likely to experience more rainfall, while some showers may reach southeastern areas. Uncertainty remains regarding the weather at the start of the month, but there are indications that high pressure could return, bringing dry conditions, especially in the south. Winds are expected to be light to moderate, occasionally fresh or strong along coastal areas, particularly in the north. Temperatures will be near or above normal, with the south experiencing the warmest conditions, potentially becoming very warm at the start of August.
Recent reports from the Met Office suggest a high probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than the current warmest year on record, 2024. Additionally, there is a likelihood that global temperatures will temporarily surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next five years.
Exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold set by the Paris Agreement raises the risk of severe climate impacts, including ecosystem degradation, species loss, extreme weather events, food and water insecurity, heat-related fatalities, and the melting of ancient ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, leading to significant sea level rise.