Russia has seen a significant increase in its oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026, surpassing last year’s figures by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels have been shipped to Asia from July to mid-October this year. The NSR connects Russian western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, offering an alternative route that has become more appealing due to disruptions in other key shipping routes.

Amid conflicts in regions like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea, tanker freight rates have reached record highs. This surge in rates, coupled with geopolitical tensions affecting U.S. crude oil availability for Asian refiners, has led them to explore options from the Middle East and Latin America. Despite the higher tariffs for using the NSR, which requires icebreaker assistance, it has become a more cost-effective route compared to the traditional path through the Red Sea to Asia.

For Russia, the NSR presents a secure alternative to European waters where oil tankers have faced regular detentions this year. Traders’ estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil exported through the Arctic route will further increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.

Gazprom Neft, a leading Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by around 35% this year compared to 2025. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) supplies to Asia via the NSR, especially with the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments. President Vladimir Putin has expressed optimism about doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent launch of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia is already contributing to the growing volumes transported through the NSR.