A former CIA operative has pinpointed a European city as a potential target for a “non-traditional” nuclear weapon detonation. Against the backdrop of escalating global tensions, including the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the looming China-Taiwan dispute, and the recent US apprehension of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, the year 2026 is perceived as increasingly precarious.

Andrew Bustamante, a former CIA intelligence officer with experience in the US Air Force and nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) operations, is well-equipped to provide insights into such geopolitical strains. Hosting the EverydaySpy podcast, Andrew maintains a consistent perspective on the issue, emphasizing the need for nations to remain vigilant and responsive to potential conventional nuclear threats.

While Andrew deems a nuclear-tipped ICBM incident in 2026 as highly improbable due to the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) from the Cold War era, he highlights a more concerning prospect of a clandestine attack that could prove challenging to anticipate and counter. He terms this scenario a “non-traditional nuclear explosion,” which could involve methods like a dirty bomb or a smuggled nuclear warhead.

Expressing his views, Andrew dismisses the likelihood of Russia launching a nuclear-tipped ICBM strike but raises concerns about the plausibility of a nuclear explosion orchestrated through covert means, such as a briefcase nuke smuggled from Belarus to a city like Kyiv. He emphasizes that such an event would lead to chaos and demand immediate investigation and response from the affected nations.

Andrew stresses the risks posed by a ‘dirty bomb,’ a device combining explosives with radioactive material. Additionally, he mentions the Oreshnik, an intermediate-range hypersonic missile with multiple warheads, which Russia claimed to have deployed towards Ukraine on January 9. Despite this, Andrew believes that using such technology for a nuclear strike would not be in Russia’s best interests.

In a cautionary tone, Andrew suggests that the detonation of a nuclear device remains a 25% possibility, albeit not unfolding in the conventional manner. He envisions potential scenarios like a shoulder-launched nuclear missile in the South China Sea causing an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) to disable military assets, creating confusion in response strategies.

Andrew underscores the importance of understanding and preparing for the evolving nature of nuclear threats, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential risks and maintain global security.