Canada’s major banks presented optimistic views on the economy, in contrast to concerns from numerous small businesses affected by the ongoing trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC disclosed their financial results before the Toronto Stock Exchange opened on Thursday. With combined assets totaling up to $6 trillion, these banking giants have extensive portfolios and client networks across Canada and the U.S., giving them a unique perspective on the impact of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay expressed confidence in the Canadian economy’s resilience, citing improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter. He highlighted that the average effective tariff rate remains low at around six percent, with the majority of exports remaining duty-free. TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned a potential investment “super cycle” in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects. CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed measured confidence for the latter part of 2026, emphasizing the bank’s commitment to monitoring the evolving trade environment and potential impacts on the labor market.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council indicated that over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was terminated. BMO Capital Markets forecasted that the latest U.S. tariffs could reduce Canadian growth by half a percentage point, primarily due to weakened business confidence and investment. Despite the trade tensions, Canada’s big banks remain positive about the economy, with shares trading near record highs on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira also lauded Canada’s economic resilience and praised government initiatives, such as large-scale investment plans and aid measures for those affected by tariffs. He highlighted positive developments in energy, power infrastructure, and the recent icebreaker contract announcement. Both the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF and shares of Canadian banks have shown strong performance over the past year, reflecting investor confidence in the sector.