Keir Starmer’s Labour party is anticipated to suffer significant losses of more than 1,800 councillors in the upcoming crucial local elections, as predicted by a prominent elections expert. Lord Robert Hayward has projected that the party’s setbacks will be widespread, creating a challenging scenario as millions of voters get ready for the polling day next Thursday. The council elections are scheduled across England, with consequential votes also happening in Scotland and Labour-governed Wales.
According to Lord Hayward, a seasoned Tory peer with a history of analyzing local elections, Labour is expected to lose 1,850 seats nationwide. Additionally, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party is also set to experience a decline of 600 councillors in seats contested in 2021, following a surge in national polls attributed to a ‘vaccine bounce.’
Lord Hayward further indicated that Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party stands to gain significantly from the losses suffered by both Labour and the Tories, potentially securing 1,550 seats. Conversely, Zack Polanski’s left-wing Green Party is poised to make gains by acquiring around 500 seats in London and affluent urban areas, as mentioned by the expert.
The analysis by Lord Hayward suggests that the Liberal Democrats are on track to add 150 seats, while independent candidates could secure approximately 250 seats. In total, more than 5,000 council seats will be contested in the upcoming elections, encompassing all 32 boroughs in the capital.
These elections are viewed as a critical juncture for the Prime Minister following recent turmoil within the government due to the Peter Mandelson scandal. Manchester’s Mayor, Andy Burnham, has recommended that Labour adopt a different approach post-May elections, acknowledging the anticipated challenges in the results. Burnham also hinted at a potential return to Westminster despite being previously blocked by Keir Starmer and the Labour governing body in February.
Lord Hayward’s analysis aligns with a recent YouGov poll underscoring the likelihood of “historic losses” for Labour in London, particularly as the Greens make inroads into the party’s traditional support base. However, election expert Professor Sir John Curtice has highlighted the significant gap between Labour and the Greens in London, suggesting that the Greens might need a substantial breakthrough to make a notable impact in the upcoming elections.