Health authorities combatting the Ebola crisis in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile data to track population movements and predict potential areas of virus transmission, as per the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
In a unique strategy unprecedented in Ebola responses, this method is being employed as the WHO grapples with what they have labeled the most rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak has been documented in six provinces, affecting over 6,250 individuals and resulting in 3,039 fatalities since its declaration on May 15, according to the most recent governmental statistics.
This particular outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is triggered by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which no authorized vaccines or remedies currently exist.
Given the escalating spread of the virus, health officials are seeking innovative ways to forecast potential outbreak locations and allocate limited surveillance and response resources effectively.
Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the crucial role of population movements in outbreaks, particularly in the present epidemic. Unlike conventional risk assessments that concentrate on outbreak epicenters and assume the virus will spread to nearby regions, analyzing mobility data enables responders to pinpoint risks in areas that may be geographically distant but interconnected through travel patterns.
Through anonymized mobile phone records generated when users connect to telecommunications networks, Swedish non-profit organization Flowminder produces the analysis. As individuals traverse the country, their phones connect to various network antennas, creating records that disclose the locations of these connections. Researchers leverage these records to estimate travel patterns between different regions.
Flowminder receives this data at no cost from Vodacom, the largest telecom operator in Congo. The organization assures that it solely receives aggregated and anonymized data without access to personally identifiable subscriber details.
Linus Bengtsson, the founder of Flowminder, clarified that their goal is to offer insights into people’s movements, which can predict how individuals carrying the infection might travel.
The initial analysis by Flowminder, released in early June, focused on the suspected starting points of the outbreak: Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara. By tracking travel patterns of individuals in these areas between April 3 and April 23, researchers identified significant flows to neighboring regions in Ituri and North Kivu provinces. By the end of June, all ten destinations receiving the highest numbers of travelers from the outbreak zones had reported confirmed Ebola cases.
Expanding their analysis as the virus spread, Flowminder identified Kisangani, a crucial transport hub on the Congo River linking eastern and western Congo, as a location of particular interest. This proactive approach allowed operations to be reinforced in Kisangani before the detection of initial cases, considering the significant risk highlighted in the data by mid-June.
Recent studies have emphasized connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as settlements along the Congo River and areas near the borders with Central African Republic and South Sudan. The analysis underscored the potential risk of Ebola spread to Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, and largest city.
As the WHO continuously warns about the outbreak’s potential spread to Kinshasa and neighboring nations, efforts are underway to secure agreements with other telecom operators to enhance coverage and acquire more comprehensive data beyond the current reliance on a single operator, Vodacom.