Washington is seeking Iran’s agreement to pause nuclear development for a period of ten to 15 years during peace negotiations, resembling a previous nuclear deal negotiated by President Obama. The White House is currently unsettled as it discusses the potential implications of such an agreement on America’s stance towards Iran. President Donald Trump may not be inclined to agree to such terms, given the perceived repercussions beyond the existing political challenges posed by the conflict.

Former CIA and State Department consultant Dr. Ilan Bergman, a senior Vice President at the American Foreign Policy Council, highlighted the evolving political discourse from the White House regarding Iran. Discussions revolve around the possibility of a time-bound delay in Iran’s nuclear activities, with proposals ranging from five to 20 years. The expectation is for a compromise between ten and 15 years, coupled with restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and proxy network.

Concerns are growing over the Strait of Hormuz being blocked by Iran and the United States Navy enforcing a blockade to deter Iranian shipping. Recent peace talks have collapsed, raising the specter of renewed hostilities after the current ceasefire ends. Additionally, there are fears of Iran’s proxy group, the Houthis in Yemen, intervening to obstruct shipping routes, notably the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical passage connecting the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea.

Dr. Ilan highlighted the activation of the East-West pipeline by Saudi Arabia as an alternative route to mitigate reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. However, this strategic move also places Yemen and the Houthis in a pivotal position. With Iran seeking additional leverage amid escalating tensions, there are concerns that the Houthis could exacerbate the situation, potentially necessitating a stronger response in the future.