Britain’s population growth is expected to slow down in the upcoming decades due to reduced migration levels, according to the latest projections by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS forecasts an increase of around 1.7 million people between 2024 and 2034, bringing the total population to 71.0 million. This figure is lower than previous estimates, reflecting a decrease in net migration and anticipated lower fertility rates.

The population is expected to continue growing until it peaks at 72.5 million in 2054, after which it will start to decline, reaching 71.4 million by 2074. Earlier predictions suggested continuous growth until 2096, but the recent drop in net migration is now projected to be the primary driver of population growth in the UK in the coming years.

James Robards, head of household and population projections at ONS, highlighted that the slower growth is mainly attributed to reduced migration and fertility rates. The estimates are based on current trends and historical data, rather than future events or policy changes.

Net migration to the UK has significantly decreased, with a 69% drop from the previous year. Over the next decade, net migration is expected to contribute 2.2 million people to the population, while natural change will result in more deaths than births, leading to an overall growth projection of 1.7 million.

The projected peak population varies across the UK, with England reaching 62.1 million in 2056, while Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are expected to reach their peaks sooner. The total projected growth in the UK population between 2024 and 2049 is estimated at 3.1 million, representing a 4.5% increase.

The demographic shift will see an increase in the number of pensioners, reaching 14.2 million by 2034, and a decrease in the number of children under 16. By 2054, it is projected that pensioners will make up 22.0% of the population, while under-16s will account for 14.5%.

Maike Currie from PensionBee expressed concerns about the demographic changes, emphasizing the challenges for the pension system with fewer workers supporting more retirees. Stuart McDonald from LCP highlighted the need for improved productivity and prevention strategies in healthcare to manage the growing population at ages requiring greater healthcare support.