The fragile ceasefire between Iran and the US is at risk of collapsing as both countries gear up for potential new strikes on Tehran’s military. US President Donald Trump has issued warnings, signaling a possible escalation in tensions amid stalled peace negotiations.

Recent reports suggest that preparations for fresh attacks across the Middle East have been ongoing, with the US military reportedly deploying a significant number of Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refueling and transport aircraft in Israel. These aircraft could be utilized for transporting military equipment into the region and supporting warplanes in potential strikes against Iran.

Despite these developments, Iran is believed to maintain its offensive and defensive capabilities, challenging previous assessments of its military strength. Intelligence analysis indicates that Iran could still carry out various forms of attacks, including missile operations, maritime disruptions, drone campaigns, and proxy-enabled assaults, leveraging asymmetrical warfare tactics to exert pressure.

The deadlock in negotiations appears to stem from Iran’s refusal to separate Lebanese Hezbollah from any peace agreement and its unwavering stance on nuclear ambitions. Demands from both sides include ending hostilities on multiple fronts, such as Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and ensuring no further assaults on Iran in exchange for reopening the Hormuz Strait.

Efforts to reach a resolution continue through intermediaries, with potential consequences if compromises are not reached. Recent developments suggest a possible concession from President Trump regarding a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear program, signaling a shift from his previous demand for total cessation.

The conflict, which began in late February with airstrikes involving the US and Israel targeting Iranian military entities, has escalated, leading to retaliatory strikes and heightened tensions. Iran’s control of the vital Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transit route, has further complicated the situation, impacting global oil prices and prompting strategic actions, including blockades and negotiations.

The evolving situation underscores the delicate balance of power and interests at play, with continued uncertainties and heightened risks as diplomatic efforts persist amid escalating military posturing and regional dynamics.